Back-to-School 2025: A Pricing Pulse Check for School Supplies and Popular Food Staples

As Back-to-School season kicks off, many families will feel a welcomed relief at checkout, but behind the scenes, brands and retailers are navigating a complex pricing landscape shaped by inflation, competition, and shifting consumer behaviors.

Our current year-over-year analysis of July 2025 pricing trends shows that both school supplies and lunchbox staples saw notable price decreases compared to July 2024. The total cost of a representative school supplies basket fell -7.1%, while lunchbox essentials dropped -3.3%. For manufacturers, these shifts are more than just consumer wins. They're signals of evolving pricing strategies, retailer positioning, and promotional pressure.

School Supplies: Competitive Pricing Drives Steep Discounts

Some of the most dramatic price drops appeared in classroom basics, especially among high-volume brands:

• Construction Paper (96 ct): down -51.6%
• Broadline Markers (10 ct): down -23.8%
• 1-Subject Notebook: down -9.0%
  

In a highly competitive back-to-school environment, these price declines suggest brands are aggressively defending shelf space and volume. Private label competition, promotional bundling, and retailer-led markdowns may all be contributing factors.

Meanwhile, other items like glue sticks, pencils, and notebooks saw more modest declines, and a few, like dry erase markers and rulers, increased in price. 

Total school supply basket:

July 2024: $52.76 → July 2025: $49.04
Change: -$3.72 (-7.1%)

Lunchbox Staples: Small Decreases Add Up

In the grocery aisle, most lunch-ready items experienced slight to moderate price declines, with some key outliers:

• Oat & Honey Granola Bar(5 ct): down -20.1%
• Applesauce Cups (6 pk): down -5.1%
• Deli Meats: down nearly -2% on both ham and turkey
  

These declines hint at efforts by brands to maintain affordability in high-turn categories, especially those that play a critical role in household planning during BTS season.

However, not every brand followed the downward trend. Fruit Snacks, String Cheese, and Mayo all posted small price increases—possibly reflecting resilient demand or fewer promotional constraints.

Total lunch staples basket:

July 2024: $59.53 → July 2025: $57.54
Change: -$1.99 (-3.3%)

Looking Ahead

Back-to-School 2025 may look like a consumer win, but for manufacturers, it's also a clear indicator that to win at retail, a wide, clear view of the competition and store level precision with your retail partners is no longer optional. Whether you're defending shelf space, planning for promos, or prepping Q4 strategy, real-time pricing intelligence will be a critical differentiator in how well you navigate the months ahead.